Authors: Aaron C. Greenville, Glenda M. Wardle & Chris R. Dickman

Published in: Royal Society Open Science

Abstract:

Feral cat shows off the native mouse it caught to our remote camera trap in the Simpson Desert, Queensland.

Climate change is predicted to place up to one in six species at risk of extinction in coming decades, but extinction probability is likely to be influenced further by biotic interactions such as predation. We use structural equation modelling to integrate results from remote camera trapping and long-term (17–22 years) regional-scale (8000 km²) datasets on vegetation and small vertebrates (>38 880 captures) to explore how biotic processes and two key abiotic drivers influence the structure of a diverse assemblage of desert biota in central Australia. We use our models to predict how changes in rainfall and wildfire are likely to influence the cover and productivity of the dominant vegetation and the impacts of predators on their primary rodent prey over a 100-year timeframe. Our results show that, while vegetation cover may decline due to climate change, the strongest negative effect on prey populations in this desert system is top-down suppression from introduced predators.

Reference:

Greenville A.C., Wardle G. M. & Dickman C. R. (2017). Desert mammal populations are limited by introduced predators rather than future climate change. Royal Society Open Science, 4: 170384.

Further reading:

My PhD journey comes to an end: the role of ecological interactions

Of mice and dogs

Greenville A. C., Wardle G. M., Dickman Christopher R. (2012). Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100-year trends in desert rainfall and temperature. Ecology and Evolution, 2, 2645-2658.

Greenville A. C., Dickman C. R., Wardle G. M. & Letnic M. (2009). The fire history of an arid grassland: the influence of antecedent rainfall and ENSO. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 18, 631-639.

Top Dog: How Dingoes Save Native Animals. Australasian Science, November 2014.

Media:

10 best Sydney science discoveries 2017, University of Sydney Media, December, 2017.

Feral animals worse than climate change, Country Today, November 2017.

Feral foxes and felines more dangerous to our desert dwellers than climate change. Scimex, November, 2017.

Feral cats, foxes a greater threat in Outback than climate change. University of Sydney Media, November, 2017.

Feral foxes, desert cats pose more threat to Aussie animals than climate change: expert. Xinhua (China), November, 2017.

Feral animals pose major threat to Outback, climate change study finds. Jersey Tribune, November, 2017.

Feral animals pose major threat to Outback, climate change study finds. Phys.org, November, 2017.

Feral animals pose major threat to Outback, climate change study finds. EurekAlert!, November, 2017.

Cats, foxes pose bigger risk to native wildlife than climate change in the outback. ABC News, November, 2017.

702 ABC Radio Sydney, November 2017 (at 47 min).

Füchse und Katzen schlimmer als Klimawandel?  Spektrum.de  (Germany), November, 2017.